Argentina will hold elections this Sunday that will condition the country's future

Argentina's citizens will renew half of the Chamber of Deputies and one-third of the Senate this Sunday, and the elections will be a kind of referendum on the management of Javier Milei, and the opinion on US intervention and the strength of Peronism will be measured.

These are the keys to understanding the importance of the October 26 elections in Argentina:

1. A plebisciteon Milei's management. When Milei is two years old in government, the ballot boxes will measure whether the Argentines still support the president whose greatest achievement has been to reduce inflation through a strict adjustment plan  that has ended with 18,000 companies and 253,000 jobs in the private sector, raised external debt to $305,043 million and caused an earthquake in the financial and exchange markets.

The ultra-right-wing leader came to power with the intention of "ending the caste," and with his closest collaborators, including his sister Karina, he has been embroiled in corruption scandals and accusations.

First of all, it was the case of the $LIBRA cryptocurrency. The president protected her just before she fell and left thousands injured. Subsequently, bribery charges were filed with the National Disability Agency, and recently links emerged between one of its main candidates and a businessman accused of drug trafficking. Milei took the candidate off the lists, but he didn't have time to remove his photo from the ballots.

2. U.S. intervention: Trump and Bessent. En the election campaign has been conducted amid reports of a possible new U.S. intervention. In addition to Donald Trump's explicit support for Milei and the aid pledged by the US Treasury, blackmail was added to the fact that this financial aid would only take effect if Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, won Sunday's election.

Trump said Argentina is "dying" and supported Milei because he likes him as president. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further, , and stressed that the US "wants no more failed nations" and does not want Peronism back.

Since coming to the presidency in December 2023 Milei, Argentina has signed a $20 billion credit with the International Monetary Fund and a swap – a currency exchange that becomes debt when executed – with the US for another $20 billion. In addition, the US Treasury has bought Argentine pesos, and Bessent has managed more financial aid with private institutions.

As a result, Argentina is one of the most indebted nations in the world and owes the IMF the most, more than $56,820 million today. The interests of the United States in Argentina, according to experts, respond to the obstruction of China's expansion in Latin America.

3.The resurrection of Peronism? Milei came after a Peronist government, that of Alberto Fernández. A person who is economically ultra-liberal and politically ultra-right-wing had to come to power to revitalize Peronism, which has 80 years of history, even though its chief, former President Cristina Fernández (2007-2015), was imprisoned at home for corruption.

Precariousness, low wages, and the reduction of social policies have revived Peronism, which has flagged independence, sovereignty, and social justice.

Axel Kicillof, governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the most important province in the country, is now the most important exponent of Peronism for fueling Milei's party in last September's legislative elections.

4. A change of political direction. Whatever happens on Sunday, Argentina is heading towards a new political direction, because after the equator of its term, Milei will be able to carry out his plan calmly if Congress is on his side. If he fails, it will be difficult for him to push through his tough adjustment plan, which they call "chainsaw."

And the Peronist movement has put all its strength into one goal: "Stop the thousands." If he wins on Sunday, he will be consolidated as the greatest opposition force and will have to agree on the figure that will lead them to the 2027 presidential elections.

5. Markets are waiting for the end. Financial markets are eager to know the results, as investors will act accordingly. If Peronism wins, the Argentine peso will lose value against the dollar. Some analysts even talk about severe devaluation.

But if Milei wins, investors don't have it all in their favor either, because they see cracks in the government's economic plan. Some experts say there will be a devaluation no matter what.