The Basque Country will maintain its population in 2075, but one in three Basques will be over 65 years old
Eustat has published five demographic scenarios this Friday that indicate that migration will be crucial to maintaining population size.
The average age of the Basque population will increase, according to Eustat. Photo: Efe.
Immigration will allow the Basque Country to continue to have 2.2 million inhabitants in 2075, but ageing will continue to increase and one in three people will be over 65 years old, as reflected in the five demographic scenarios for the next 50 years published this Friday by the Basque Institute of Statistics (Eustat).
Four of these five scenarios indicate that the working-age population (16-64 years) will be lower in half a century, and that maintaining the size of the labour force will require a significant increase in fertility and the continued arrival of migrants.
Similarly, all the hypotheses are that natural growth will be negative, that is, that the number of deaths will exceed that of births, which could result in a population loss of between 320,000 and 795,000 people.
In the reference scenario, on which the other four are based, the negative natural balance would be 572,400 people, 791,000 births and 1,363,400 deaths, a loss that would be offset by the arrival of migrants in four of the five scenarios, with migratory balances ranging from 81,400 to 893,000 people.
2075 demographic data by scenario
Reference scenario
Inhabitants: 2.2 million.
Migration balance: 550,000 people.
Fertility: 1.35 children per woman.
Men's life expectancy is 87.5 years.
Women's life expectancy: 91 years.
Lower stage.
Population: 1.5 million.
Migration balance: 81,400 people.
Fertility: 1.1 children per woman.
Men's life expectancy: 85 years.
Women's life expectancy: 89 years.
Top stage.
Population: 2.8 million.
Migration balance: 893,000 people.
Fertility: 1.6 children per woman.
Men's life expectancy: 90 years.
Women's life expectancy: 93 years.
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