Election day in Saxony-Anhalt, with the far right as favorite

In the regionalelections in Saxony-Anhalt in eastern Germany Alternative for Germany  (AfD)  The ultra-right-wing A0 is the favorite. According to the latest poll, it would take 41% of the voting intention.  ChancellorFriedrich Merz 's CDU would be 18 points away, with 23% support; and the Left, SPD and Greens would be left behind.

This result would not guarantee AfD an absolute majority, but would make it by far the most voted party, so the main challenge for the other parties will be to prevent the ultra-right from ruling alone, a possibility that could occur if the SPDand the Greens do not exceed the minimum threshold of 5% and are therefore excluded from the regional parliament.

The CDU, which currently governs in coalition with the SPDand the FDP, has not changed its position and maintains its veto to compromise  withAfDand the Left. In this sense, a possible coalition between conservatives, social democrats and environmentalists would not achieve an absolute majority on its own, so governing in a minority would require the support of the Left, albeit sporadic.

Participation, key

The polling stations have opened at 8 a.m. and around 1.7 million people are called to vote until 6 p.m. Parting will have a major impact on the composition of the future regional parliament, as well as on the parties' ability to overcome the minimum electoral barrier.

Another factor of uncertainty is the Sahra Wagenknecht Treaty  (BSW), a party whose representation could further complicate negotiations for the formation of a governmentwhich, according to polls, could gain support of around 5%. In this context, the BSW has ruled out facilitating the re-election of the current prime minister, Sven Schulze , which could lead to scenarios not previously seen in the state.

Germany, waiting

If it succeeds in governing alone, AfD intends to implement measuressuch as the "offensive for deportations and remigration"; the linkingof financial support for birth with parental nationality  (specifically with the German passport)  and the prohibition of LGBT/U00a0 flags in public schools.

Saxony-Anhalt is a federated state of 2.14 million inhabitants , with a majority population in small towns or rural areas. Ithas four of 69 representativesin the Upper House of the German Parliament and, in that chamber, the governments of 16 federated states are represented.