Hungary will be able to close the Orban era on Sunday

Hungary faces the most important European elections this year on Sunday. In the shadow of the war in Ukraine, there will be elections that will transform the difficult relations and internal policy between Budapest and the European Union.

The elections are a plebiscite on Orban's term and a sign of the polarization that now prevails in Central Europe:the rivalry between a liberal and pro-European current and a party with an ultra-nationalist and conservative agenda.

In a tense political climate, and under the watchful eye of Brussels and Washington, major polls point to Magyar and his party as favourites in the election, but the extent to which his victory will influence will depend not only on the strength of the victory, but also on his position.

As far as foreign policy is concerned, Magyar has promised to talk to Brussels at least in a more friendly way, but has warned that\u00A0 does not intend to reverse its policy against Ukraine's accession to the EU. As far as relations with Russia are concerned, although it foresees a reduction in energy dependence, the date of 2035 is far from the target of 2027 set by Brussels.

At the internal level, Magyar has expressed his desire to eliminate the presence of Orban supporters in the judiciary (the other great conflict).

On social issues, Magyar is on the conservative spectrum and has clearly expressed his opinion on the situation of the LGBTQ community that Orban has been pursuing for years: "If we come to power, everyone will live as they please and love as long as they do not violate the law."

Magyar was unknown in Hungarian politics until he took his name in the European elections in June 2024. the newly formed party of this 45-year-old lawyer took seven of the 21 seats at stake, only four months after leaving Orban's Fidesz party . He left the party after being accused of covering up a scandal related to child abuse.

The EU is holding its breath.

The EU is breathing.

The European Union has opted for strategic silence in the run-up to these elections, considering that any declaration may complicate the situation. Indeed, this Sunday's elections are a very important election for the EU, because they may affect relations between Brussels and Hungary.

The European Commission is the main target of the Hungarian Government, which blocked aid to the Central European country because Orban did not guarantee the independence of the judiciary.

European institutions will be relieved if the polls are carried out, and if someone other than Orban takes the lead in Hungary for the first time since 2010.

But Peter Magyar will have a tremendous challenge to keep his electoral promises and restore his country's relations with the European Union.

Winning elections in Hungary may not be enough for Magyar to set his own agenda: certain decisions, such as reforming the Constitution or changing administrative positions loyal to Orban, require two-thirds of Parliament , and currently few polls give him such support.

The worst scenario for Brussels would be for the polls to make a terrible mistake, and for Orban to get another four-year government on Sunday night, reaching two decades of uninterrupted power.

In this context, the EU should find new formulas to avoid Hungary's vetoes, but Brussels believes that tension would ease when Orban takes the elections out of his head.