Most Magyars can stop Orban's flow and change balances

The fact that Peter Magyar won two-thirds of Parliament in the elections in Hungary will not be just a relay in power: thestrategic earthquake   is in Europe . After almost sixteen years of uninterrupted power, Hungary will move from being a conflicting player within the European Union to a partner with Brussels.

Magyar's message on election night was clear and symbolic: Hungary will return to central Europe. The promise that the country's "place" is in the EU has caused a direct rupturewith the strategic ambiguity of the previous one.

In Europe, the change has immediate consequences. The removal of the stain eliminates one of the main vetoes blocking key decisions at the European Council, particularly with regard to sanctions against Russia and financial aid to Ukraine .

One of the first foreseeable consequences will be the unblocking of the EUR 90 billion aid package to Kiev. So far, Budapest has halted the initiative, making it conditional on its energy interests.

For years, Hungary has been a key node for the entry of Russian hydrocarbons into Europe, thanks to infrastructure such as TurkStream or the Druzhba pipeline. Political change can accelerate energy diversification and reduce Moscow's influence in the region.

However, Brussels will now face the dilemma of directly unblocking the EUR 17 billion frozen to Hungary in order to reward political change, or of maintaining pressure until the reforms of the rule of law become a reality.

The war between Russia and Ukraine

At the same time, the impact on the war between Russia and Ukraine is imminent. Vladimir Putin has lost his most reliable ally in the EU with the defeat of Orban.

For Volodimir Zelensky, on the other hand, the result is a strategic victory . Kiev had been waiting months for the Hungarian elections, considering that a change of government would unblock funding and reduce tensions between the two countries.

The energy conflict at the heart of the relationship between Budapest, Moscow and Kiev could also be channelled. Magyar has promised to resolve conflicts with neighbouring countries, opening the door to agreements on critical infrastructure such as the Druzhba pipeline.

Reference to ultra-right-wing populism

In general, change in Hungary also has an ideological dimension. Orban was a reference point for international conservative populism, admired by far-right leaders and movements in Europe and America. His departure from power undermines this network of influence and sends a warning about the limitations of this model within the EU.

Beyond the economy, victory weakens the populist bloc in Europe. The stain became an ideological benchmark for people like Marine Le Pen, Santiago Abascal or Herbert Kickl. Its failure breaks one of the symbolic pillars of that movement and reinforces, at least temporarily, the pro-European axis.

Domestic policy

As far as internal politics is concerned, Magyar's vast majority completely transforms the political situation. Unlike before the election, the new prime minister now has the votes needed to reform the Constitution and dismantle the institutional system built by Orban.

This power opens the door to profound changes in justice, freedom of the press, and administration, but not in an agile and easy manner. Much of the State structure remains in the hands of pro-Government figures, which presupposes a complex transition.