Dual vote: That's how votes change depending on the election
Silvan & Miracle analyzes data from the latest EITB Focus survey.
Silvan & Miracle 's analysis of the latest EITB Focus poll shows that voting dynamics in the Basque Country vary from election to election, a phenomenon called dual voting .
If we look at the vote of the Basque electors in the last parliamentary elections and the vote they are supposed to cast in the possible general elections, we can see the dynamics.
The PSOE gets the votes of the voters of PNV, EH Bildu and Podemos. According to Silvan & Miracle, these parties were elected in the autonomous elections, but in the general elections they will opt for the PSOE.
This phenomenon also occurred in the last general elections held in the Basque Country, although this transfer does not guarantee good results, given the large number of undecided people within the PSOE (about 15% of the electorate) and the large number of votes received by the PNV.
The jeltzales, for their part, are expected to take over part of the socialist vote, as well as the support of the PP electorate. The latter dynamic, according to Silván & Miracle, is really interesting: "The voters of the People's Party in the Basque Country identify little with Feijóo, and there seems to be a lack of reference leadership."
EH Bildu has the most loyal electorate. According to the data, around 90% of those who supported the coalition in the last election will back it. This high level of loyalty allows EH Bildu to have the most internal stability.
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