The PNV would maintain leadership in Álava and Bizkaia, while EH Bildu would prevail in Gipuzkoa
According to the latest voting forecast published by the Cabinet of Sociological Prospecting of the Basque Government, the PNV would remain the first force in Álava and Bizkaia and EH Bildu would consolidate its leadership in Gipuzkoa. The survey, conducted between 20 and 26 May, provides a picture of the political trend prior to the elections to the General Meetings of 2027.
In Bizkaia, the PNV would be the party that would prevail by the largest margin. Jeltzales would get 39.4% of the valid votes, above the 29% that EH Bildu would receive. The third force would be the PSE-EE (14.9%), followed by the PP (6.8%) and Vox (3.1%).
In Álava, the competition would be much tighter, with the PNV taking 28.5% of the vote and EH Bildu 28.2%, with only three tenths of a difference, while the Socialists (15.8%) and the PP (15%) would have a similar level of support, while Vox would reach 5.9%.
In Gipuzkoa, for its part, EH Bildu shows clear leadership in the forecasts. The sovereign coalition would get 39.6% of the valid votes, ahead of 33.4% of the PNV. The PSE-EE would be the third force (13.1%), while the PP would get 6.1%.
The survey also shows that abstention would be high in all three territories, with 40.8 per cent in Álava, 40.7 per cent in Bizkaia and 40.5 per cent in Gipuzkoa.
On the other hand, crude survey data show that a significant proportion of the population has not yet decided their vote. The percentage of those who have responded "don't know" exceeds 20% in all three territories, indicating that as the elections approach, there may be movements in the correlation of forces between the parties.
The Sociological Survey Cabinet has interviewed 3485 citizens for the study: 800 in Álava, 1485 in Bizkaia and 1200 in Gipuzkoa. The sample error of the survey is ± 1.7% for the whole of the Basque Country, with a confidence level of 95.5%.
The voting forecast confirms the rivalry between the two main forces of Basque politics: the PNV still holds first place in two historical territories, but EH Bildu strengthens the leadership of Gipuzkoa and in Álava it is almost tied to jeltzales.
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