UPN would be the first force in Navarre, but far from the majority; both PSN and EH Bildu would fight for second place
The sum of the right (UPN, PP, and Vox) would be far from the absolute majority; and PSN, EH Bildu, Geroa Bai, and the confederal left could endorse a progressive government.
UPN would prevail in next year's Navarre Parliament elections, but it would have a very difficult time governing, according to the latest EITB Focus poll. The sum of UPN, PP, and Vox would be far from an absolute majority, and progressive forces – PSN, EH Bildu, Geroa Bai, and the confederal left – would be able to reconstitute a progressive government.
Ten years after UPN's loss of power in 2015, regionalist formation is still difficult to return to the Palace of Navarre. According to the EITB Focus poll, UPN would get 26.2% of the vote (it would lose more than two points). However, with the support of the PP — it would retain 7.5% of the vote — and the results of Vox — 6.7%; 2.3 points more — the right-wing bloc would not get the absolute majority needed to govern.
They would get a representation similar to the current one — or a little lower — but Vox would be reinforced to the detriment of UPN.
A Chance to Renew Government
On the other side, the forces that make up the Navarre Government or support it from outside would have the opportunity to renew the current government with a slight improvement in results.
PSN and EH Bildu would fight for second force, with the Socialists getting 20.5% of the vote — half a point less than in 2023 — and EH Bildu getting 19.9% in voting intention, 2.5 points more than in 2023).
Geroa Bai would become the fourth force again with 13% of the vote (she would lose half a point), while the Confederal Left would get 5.6% of the vote (she had 6.2% in 2023). It should be noted that the poll has asked about the brand Contigo/Zurekin, although it is not yet clear what name this space will be presented with.
In terms of leadership assessment, Navarre President Maria Chivite has a 64.7% approval rate and a 5.2 rating.
Situation in Pamplona
The EITB Focus poll does not measure voting intentions in Pamplona/Iruña, but it does disseminate some data on the municipality or the degree of knowledge and acceptance of Mayor Joseba Asiron.
Joseba Asiron is known to 96.7% of the population surveyed by EITB Focus in Pamplona/Iruña, 66.1% of whom approve it and receive an average rating of 5.7.
On the other hand, as far as municipal management is concerned, the respondents have rated the management of the government team at 5.98.
As for the vote for the upcoming municipal elections, the poll has measured voting fidelity. The PP and EH Bildu have the most faithful voters: 100% of those who voted for the PP in 2023 and 91.1% of those who voted for EH Bildu would vote for the same party again.
Methodology and sample
The methodology used in this research has been quantitative in nature, carried out through the interview technique.
This research technique makes it possible to respond to all the objectives set, obtaining results of maximum validity and reliability. The universe of the study consists of persons aged 18 or over residing in the Basque Autonomous Community and Navarre and the field work was carried out between 17 April and 13 May 2026.
Stratified sampling has been carried out with proportional quota allocation using quantitative methodology.
Sample
A total of 4,250 surveys have been conducted (950 in Álava, 1,500 in Bizkaia, 1,200 in Gipuzkoa and 600 in Navarre). The surveys have been distributed in 400 capitals — Vitoria, Bilbao, San Sebastián and Pamplona — 200 in Llodio, Amurrio, Getxo, Basauri, Barakaldo, Tolosa, Irún and Eibar; 50 in Salvatierra; 500 in the rest of Bizkaia; 200 in the rest of Gipuzkoa and Navarra; and 100 in the rest of Álava.
The margin of error is ± 1.5 per cent for general data, ± 3.17 per cent for the Historical Territory of Álava, ± 2.53 per cent for the Historical Territory of Bizkaia, ± 2.82 per cent for the Historical Territory of Gipuzkoa and ± 3.99 per cent for Navarre, with a confidence level of 95 per cent.
The sample has been random and stratified by territorial area, municipality, sex and age.
24% of the surveys have been conducted in Basque and the remaining 76% in Spanish, weighing the overall results according to the population size of the municipalities surveyed.
The field work was conducted between 17 April and 13 May 2026 through telephone interviews.
The average survey time was 10 minutes and 22 seconds, the shortest survey time being 6 minutes and the longest survey being 36 minutes.
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